April 2024 barometer update
The MSCI World index has shown a gain in the first quarter of nearly 8%. This is the best quarterly performance for world stock markets for 5 years. The best region was Japan where the Topix made 16%. In comparison, the US S&P500 made 10% and the FTSE100 a mere 3%.
The Sector Rotation Clock continues to point to Early Expansion in the stock market cycle. However, I have wound this back slightly due to the bullish performance of Financials which would normally be associated with the Late Contraction phase of the cycle. Here is the clock with the bullish and bearish sectors updated:
According to the Barometer the Consumer Discretionary sectors that are worth examining are still Household Goods, General Retailers, Media and Travel & Leisure. I have now purchased shares in an AIM-listed travel company. Fingers crossed!
To summarise the indicators:
The Barometer has remained at +2.
The Hi-Lo-Grometer has remained in the light green zone. The 52-week highs and lows both exceed 100.
The US Treasury Yield indicator has remained inverted in the -120 points zone.
The first quarter performance usually predicts the remainder of the year. However the FTSE still has a lot of catching up to do.
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